Whose backyard?

CAN Europe pull off America’s trick? The European Union wants to bolster stability and prosperity in ex-Soviet countries on its borders, while improving ties with Russia on other matters. That is pretty much what Barack Obama’s new administration has managed. It has separated the issues where agreement is reachable, such as arms control, from those where it isn’t, such as the future of countries such as Georgia. The EU’s efforts, however, look quite puny. At a two-day summit in Prague ending on Friday May 8th it launched an “Eastern Partnership” which is supposed to create closer political and economic ties with six countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.

The EU faces obstacles to closer relations with its eastern neighbours. One element is a spy spat. After NATO expelled two Russian officials accredited to the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels, the Kremlin in turn on Wednesday threw out two Canadian diplomats who represent NATO in Moscow. Western spooks have been grumbling that Russia’s mission to NATO, set up in the hope of defusing the Kremlin’s feelings of exclusion, had turned into a blatant intelligence-gathering operation. But neither side seems interested in escalating it further.

Russia is also now downplaying its hostility to NATO-led exercises in Georgia. Russian state-run media earlier characterised these as “war games” and Russian forces in the region presented a show of strength in response. Some wondered if another war was brewing.

America sees the Russian reaction as neurotic and unjustified. Its diplomats point out that the NATO exercises are small (with barely 1,000 soldiers in all), long-planned and deal with disaster relief. They include non-NATO countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Russian allies. Russia itself was invited (at German insistence) but then declined to attend. The real story is not NATO muscle-flexing in Russia’s back yard, but the Kremlin’s lingering feeling of entitlement over its former empire, they argue.

Still, if Russia matches its verbal climbdown with an end to its military sabre-rattling against Georgia, it will set the stage for a sunny visit by Mr Obama to Russia in July. After talks in Washington, DC, with Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, America’s president said the two countries had an “excellent opportunity” to improve relations. Talks start on May 18th on a much-needed treaty to cut both sides’ arsenals of strategic nuclear weapons. America also hopes for more Russian help over issues such as Iran.

The sunlight over Washington has not yet dispelled the dank fog of suspicion over the Caucasus. Georgia is still twitchy about Russian intentions. The authorities there defused what appeared to be an attempted military coup on Tuesday. They blamed Russia. The opposition said it was a stunt aimed at bolstering support for Georgia’s president, Mikheil Saakashvili. Then the month-long opposition protests in the capital, Tbilisi, persistent but dwindling in number, briefly turned violent. Mr Saakashvili has to tread a fine line between showing his long-suffering western friends that he has become calmer and more responsible, while at the same time making sure that Russia does not succeed in its stated intention of toppling him.

Against all that, substance is rather lacking with the EU’s “eastern partnership”. Only 17 of 27 EU heads of government turned up for the summit. Gordon Brown and Nicolas Sarkozy were among the missing heavyweights. Alyaksandr Lukashenka, the Belarussian leader, stayed away (few of his European counterparts think he has done enough to relax his authoritarian regime). The six countries are a mixed bag, ranging from those that ardently want to join western clubs (Georgia), to Russian satrapies (Belarus). The €600m ($805m) budget for the partnership is chickenfeed. Genuinely easing rules on visas would make a difference. But Germany doesn’t want that. It also does not want any measures that would offend Russia.

Still, by the cautious standards of the EU, officials sounded quite cross about Russia’s chilly attitude. The EU’s leading foreign-policy official, Javier Solana, complained that: “Some comments from Russian leaders have not been very constructive…They understand very well this is not against Russia.” Maybe not but it is still unclear how Russia regards its neighbours’ foreign relations.

Do they believe that anything that stokes security and prosperity is a benefit all round? Or do they see it as a zero-sum game, in which integration westwards in the former empire automatically threatens what Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s president, calls his country’s “privileged interests”. What is certain is that trade allows Russia to play divide-and-rule with the EU in a way that it cannot with America.